Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.094662 0.110113 0.127847 0.149830 0.176519 0.208086 0.248570
2025-10-19 0.073683 0.092464 0.116114 0.148512 0.192413 0.250827 0.336143
2025-10-26 0.059295 0.079332 0.106657 0.147552 0.208837 0.300033 0.451571
2025-11-02 0.047342 0.066901 0.095476 0.141751 0.217805 0.343664 0.581319
2025-11-09 0.037632 0.055720 0.083765 0.132464 0.219522 0.378716 0.719417
2025-11-16 0.031942 0.049506 0.078396 0.132239 0.237301 0.451211 0.978166
2025-11-23 0.027341 0.044162 0.073360 0.131498 0.254881 0.534344 1.331112
2025-11-30 0.024037 0.040386 0.070282 0.133823 0.280648 0.652479 1.897514
2025-12-07 0.021220 0.036952 0.067130 0.135312 0.306293 0.790170 2.707962
2025-12-14 0.018360 0.032931 0.062014 0.131222 0.317552 0.900110 3.607800
2025-12-21 0.015287 0.027995 0.054085 0.118527 0.301294 0.917196 4.162333
2025-12-28 0.013766 0.025914 0.051813 0.119095 0.324142 1.092761 5.975614
2026-01-04 0.012652 0.024540 0.050952 0.123541 0.363659 1.384466 9.597086
2026-01-11 0.011534 0.022974 0.049347 0.125638 0.398067 1.706479 15.177551
2026-01-18 0.010549 0.021540 0.047775 0.127487 0.434309 2.102743 24.646638
2026-01-25 0.009483 0.019753 0.044968 0.124730 0.451682 2.432155 36.992491
2026-02-01 0.008415 0.017805 0.041379 0.118393 0.450649 2.653777 51.066757
2026-02-08 0.007778 0.016795 0.040102 0.119556 0.486802 3.248732 89.310925
2026-02-15 0.007190 0.015820 0.038733 0.120022 0.521356 3.941792 160.636956
2026-02-22 0.006749 0.015146 0.038087 0.123057 0.574160 5.011976 340.239238
2026-03-01 0.006327 0.014457 0.037264 0.125203 0.625550 6.303993 769.315552
2026-03-08 0.005813 0.013457 0.035316 0.122114 0.642187 7.236260 1490.658810
2026-03-15 0.005157 0.012001 0.031717 0.110928 0.595476 7.024840 1832.294931